Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Summary Box: Europe inflation cools off in August

INFLATION DOWN: Inflation in the 16 countries that use the euro fell in August, as consumer prices rose by 1.6 percent in the year to August, down from July's 20-month high rate of 1.7 percent.

BELOW TARGET RATE: Inflation remains below the European Central Bank's target of close to, but below 2 percent. Most analysts think inflation is unlikely to spike, because of easing oil prices and 10 percent unemployment keeping wage demands low high quality business cards.

INTEREST RATES LIKELY TO STAY LOW: With inflation seen as under control and unemployment still high, the European Central Bank is expected to keep its main interest rate unchanged at 1 percent when policymakers meet Thursday.

Summary Box: Europe inflation cools off in August

Hot News: Sanofi makes $18.5 billion Genzyme offer public

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Online video key to Disney, Time Warner Cable row

NEW YORK/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – The growing availability of popular TV shows on the Web is at the heart of ongoing contentious programing fee negotiations between Walt Disney Co and Time Warner Cable Inc, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

If the agreements are not in place before midnight on Wednesday, millions of homes in major cities like New York and Los Angeles could see their local ABC broadcast, ESPN channels and some Disney channels go dark.

Both sides said in a statement early on Sunday they had made "significant progress" in their negotiations, but a deal is yet to be inked.

The progress was in part an agreement to cool off on a barrage of hard-hitting adverts such as Disney warning customers to switch to satellite operators DirecTV and DISH Network or phone company Verizon Communications -- which has also ran a separate campaign.

While programing fee negotiations are always about how much the cable operator might have to pay to keep carrying the programmer's networks, these latest talks between Time Warner Cable and Disney have been further complicated by issues such as competition from online video services like Apple TV and Netflix Inc and retransmission cash fees for the ABC network.

With reports last week that Disney is in advanced talks with Apple Inc to make some of its current shows available for a rental fee of 99 cents, Time Warner Cable executives believe they should be offered comparable deals or even for free through its video-on-demand service, said the person familiar with the discussions.

Time Warner Cable has also balked at Disney's request to pay a fee for ESPN3.com, a sports website which carries some live events online but is only available to the broadband customers of its cable operator partners.

Bloomberg reported last week that Disney was looking for around 10 cents a customer each month. Time Warner Cable has 9.2 million broadband customers. ESPN3, which carried some World Cup matches earlier this summer, already has a deal in place with larger cable company Comcast Corp poor credit personal loans.

Time Warner Cable has negotiated an online programing deal before with Fox for its Speed2 channel online as part of the latest round of negotiations in December.

The discussions over retransmission fee for ABC is less at the forefront compared with previous battles with News Corp's Fox. Cable operators have become more accepting of the principle of paying to carry free-to-air broadcast signals on their cable systems.

If the talks fail it will hit Time Warner Cable homes that carry ABC in New York, Los Angeles, Raleigh, North Carolina, Houston and Toledo, Ohio. It would also hit six ESPN networks, ABC Family, Disney Channel, Disney XD and SOAPnet.

An outage would also affect homes served by closely held Bright House Networks which serves Tampa and Orlando, Florida, as well as several other smaller metropolitan areas.

Time Warner Cable negotiates some programing deals on behalf of the much smaller Bright House.

Both Disney and Time Warner Cable say privately they expect the negotiations to go to the wire as they often do, with a possibility of a last-minute deal or at least an extension in order to avoid disrupting customers' viewing.

But channels have gone dark before in recent programing fee disputes.

Earlier this year, ABC went off the air for several hours on Cablevision Systems Corp only to return 12 minutes into the live Academy Awards ceremony telecast after an agreement was reached.

Both Time Warner Cable and Disney will be keen to avoid the public relations and consumer backlash that could come with a programing blackout hitting many more millions of homes than with Cablevision.

"We are committed to reaching a fair agreement so Time Warner Cable subscribers can continue to enjoy our wide array of services," said Charissa Gilmore, spokeswoman for Disney-ABC Television Group.

Online video key to Disney, Time Warner Cable row

Friday, August 27, 2010

Adding Taxes, Shedding Secrecy

ANDORRA — Andorra, one of Europe’s smallest nations, has relied on banking secrecy, tourism and duty-free trade to turn itself into one of the Continent’s most impressive postwar economic success stories.

Wedged between France and Spain and with a population of 84,000, Andorra has benefited from its hybrid status as a principality headed by representatives from its two neighbors to attract their entrepreneurs and tourists. It also gained a reputation for being unwilling to share information, particularly financial data.

Still, Andorrans take pride in having transformed their mountain farming community into a financial and commercial center that coupled massive immigration from France, Spain and Portugal with several years of double-digit economic growth.

But lately, those engines of growth have begun to backfire, forcing landlocked Andorra to find new sources of revenue.

“The three engines of our economy — trade, tourism and finance — have all shown signs of exhaustion,” said Marc Pantebre, president of the Andorran Chamber of Commerce.

Gross domestic product per capita has dropped every year since 2006 — a decline reflected in almost every sector. Tourism has fallen steadily over that period, down to about 9 million from 10 million annual visitors, who are mostly attracted to the winter skiing in the Pyrenees and a mix of duty-free shopping and hiking in the summer.

In response to the downturn, this year, for the first time, every Andorran company will be required to publish its accounts, thereby also allowing the government to work out the exact size of the Andorran economy (it cannot for now provide exact G.D.P. figures). The state is also proposing to collect its first-ever direct taxes, in the form of a corporate levy and to introduce a new system of value-added taxation — all pending approval by lawmakers.

Meanwhile, the Andorran banking sector has also been forced to reposition itself as a more competitive and transparent financial center.

During the worldwide financial crisis, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, who also carries the title of co-prince of Andorra, placed himself at the helm of an international crusade to clamp down on tax evasion. Mr. Sarkozy told Andorra to fall in line if it did not want to be ostracized, even threatening in early 2009 to drop his princely title. Spain, desperate to plug its ballooning budget deficit, also became more determined to recoup money hidden in offshore accounts.

Andorra complied, signing agreements with its two neighbors as well as with several other countries to collaborate on cross-border fraud investigations. As a result, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development removed Andorra last year from its list of “uncooperative tax havens.”

Mr. Sarkozy also applauded. “Transparency is not in conflict with the Andorran identity,” he told a public gathering while visiting Andorra last month.

Such recent praise has come as a major relief to Andorrans. The country’s ongoing transformation is also perhaps a test case for other smaller nations and tax havens that have been pressured into joining the international mainstream.

But whether a better reputation as a more transparent banking center will also translate into a stronger nation remains unclear. Some local politicians deplore the fact that Andorra allowed itself to be bullied, as they see it. The country, the politicians argue, should instead have introduced reforms of its own accord — before Europe’s economic downturn started to complicate such an overhaul.

“We should have made these changes much earlier,” said Rosa Ferrer, mayor of Andorra la Vella, the nation’s capital.

One immediate worry for Ms. Ferrer and others is that Andorra’s reform drive might soon run into political instability. The center-left government that spearheaded reform is now struggling to get lawmakers to approve its budget. Without an absolute parliamentary majority, the governing party needs another party’s lawmakers to endorse its budget plans. Otherwise, it would probably be forced to call early elections, having come into office only last year.

In important steps toward joining the international mainstream, Andorra added a constitution in 1993 and then joined the United Nations. Andorra’s latest priority is to reach an association agreement with the European Union, as well as to end a system of double taxation imposed by France and Spain that has largely prevented Andorran companies from expanding beyond their borders no teletrack payday loan.

Meanwhile, all the proposed reforms are testing citizens’ tolerance for change. “A lot is now being asked of people here in terms of change, but we have our idiosyncrasy, and losing our identity wouldn’t be good,” said the Rev. Jordi Miquel, parish priest in Massana, another Andorran town. “Uniformity tends to make this world poorer, and there is more to learn from our differences.”

One concern has been Andorra’s fading appeal as a duty-free shopping paradise, with items like electronics and alcohol traditionally available at much lower prices than in Spain or France. But since the switch to the euro in 2002, the price differential has dropped. Andorran shops no longer get preferential treatment from suppliers, said Mr. Pantebre, because larger brands now use regional distribution structures in which tiny markets like Andorra lack clout.

A traffic warden, who asked not to be named, said that the local police force had acquired bicycles from Spain — to the frustration of local retailers but at almost half their price.

“The only real asset that we can still offer shoppers is security,” he said. “You could leave everything in the car, with the keys in the ignition, and nothing would happen.”

Still, Andorra’s planned value-added tax, at 4.5 percent, will be far below that of almost every other Western nation, local politicians noted. But should shopping tourism continue to decline, it could seriously hurt a country that put business ahead of charm as a drawing card.

Arguably the biggest unknown is the future of Andorra’s five banks: BancSabadell d’Andorra, Banc Internacional-Banca Mora, Andbanc, Banca Privada d’Andorra and Credit Andorra. Having to relax secrecy rules was “a real shock for Andorra,” said Pascal Saint-Amans, who heads the O.E.C.D. secretariat handling international tax cooperation from Paris.

Andorran banks also have a more limited product offering than institutions in similarly sized offshore centers like Monaco or Jersey, with its thriving trust business, said Mr. Saint-Amans. “Andorra has been far less diversified and more dependent on secrecy,” he said, reflecting in large part the needs of entrepreneurs based just across Andorra’s borders.

The aggregate assets of Andorran banks fell 15.6 percent in 2009, according to a report from the banking association published this month. The banks, however, remained profitable and kept their default ratio at 2.2 percent, benefiting from a cautious lending approach that also steered clear of the subprime meltdown.

That conservative management should help offset the loss of full secrecy guarantees, according to local executives and politicians. “Our banks can still provide security as well as a good return,” said Joan Gabriel Estany, leader of the opposition Liberal Party. “Why is Switzerland attractive? Not because of its banking secrecy but because of the stability that it offers.”

Still, Pere López, the country’s economy and finance minister, hinted in an interview at changes in the secluded banking landscape. “We want to facilitate the international expansion of our banking sector and the arrival of new entities in Andorra,” he said.

Meanwhile, the government is hoping the anticipated income from a corporate tax will erase a budget deficit that reached 5 percent of G.D.P. last year. The country’s debt burden is expected to rise to about 39 percent of G.D.P. this year from 35 percent, said Mr. López. That remains well below many other European countries, but Andorra had to act rapidly because “we have a chronic deficit that could turn into a very difficult situation,” the minister said.

In direct response to the downturn, the country also introduced a system of unemployment compensation last September to help stem a recent population outflow in a country that had relied heavily on an immigrant work force to grow.

“Economic activity was so strong that joblessness was literally not an issue until now, but things have changed, and helping the unemployed is a social responsibility,” said Gérard Martínez, an independent economist, who estimates that as many as 3,000 workers have left Andorra since 2006. “Without benefits, somebody without a job pretty much had to leave.”

Adding Taxes, Shedding Secrecy

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Money managers are optimistic, but clients arent

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A majority of investment advisers say that a double-dip recession is unlikely and that the stock market will improve over the next six months -- but their clients are more worried, according to a survey of money managers released Wednesday by financial-services firm Charles Schwab Corp.

Almost 60% of advisers said it's unlikely the U.S. economy will head back into recession in the next six months -- 28% said it's likely to happen -- and 63% said the S&P 500 will rise in that time, according to the survey in July of 1,199 advisers who work at independent firms with assets held at Schwab. Hear the views of PNC strategist Bill Stone on the odds of a double dip.

Trouble at home

Nick Timiraos and Steve Kerch discuss the latest housing data.

But about half of advisers said their clients are less optimistic about the economy than clients were in 2009. And 50% of advisers said their clients are less optimistic now than they were last year about being able to retire on time, while 40% said their clients are less positive about their investments' performance. When it comes to their pocketbooks, 47% of clients are trimming back on expenses and more than half are cutting back on spending.

Also, advisers are more worried about meeting their clients' goals: 71% said it's difficult to meet client expectations in the current market environment, up from 58% who said that in the same survey in January. Still, that's down from the 84% of advisers who said that in January 2009.

But clients appear to need less hand-holding these days: 30% of advisers said their clients needed reassurance in the past six months about being on track to meet their goals, down from the 49% with that response in January 2009.

The advisers have soured a bit on some aspects of the economy in the past six months: 42% said consumer spending will increase, down from 47% in January, and 53% said the housing market will continue to soften, up from 46% in January. Thirty-two percent said unemployment will increase, down from 40% who said that in January. MarketWatch First Take: Why nobody wants to buy a house.

"A lot of the indicators still point to being cautious, [but] I think there's an optimism that's beginning to creep back into the marketplace," said Bernie Clark, executive vice president for Charles Schwab Advisor Services.

And the clients keep coming: 92% of advisers said they'd brought in new client money in the past six months. Of those, 41% said clients came from full-service brokerage firms, 34% said they came from some other type of firm or financial professional, and 25% said the new clients were do-it-yourself investors.

Where to invest next?

Some money managers said recent global events have affected their investment decisions: 67% said the European debt crisis had had at least a moderate impact on their investing choices, 48% said declines in the Chinese market had a moderate impact on their decisions (another 47% said that had no affect), and 37% said the Gulf oil spill had a moderate impact on their decisions (while 60% said it had no impact) cash till payday.

When asked about asset classes, advisers showed a lot less love for developed markets than they had done in January. Just 15% of advisers said they planned to increase their investments in international large-cap companies in developed markets -- down from 28% who planned to invest more in that asset class in January.

That 13-percentage-point drop was the largest change in managers' asset-class allocation from January to July. Another steep drop: Just 10% said they would invest more in international small caps in developed markets, down from 19% in January.

The most popular asset class over the next six months: 28% of advisers pointed to international large caps in emerging markets, and 27% said they plan to invest more in U.S. large-cap companies. Just 14% of investment advisers said they plan to invest more in cash in the next six months, down from 28% who said that in January 2008 and 20% in January 2009.

Here's the complete list of asset classes, and the portion of managers who said they plan to invest more there in the next six months:

28%, international large cap in emerging markets

27%, U.S. large cap

20%, international small cap in emerging markets

19%, fixed income

16%, U.S. small cap

15%, international large cap in developed markets

14%, cash

10%, international small cap in developed markets

Favorite sectors, for the short term

Information technology topped advisers' list of favored sectors: 47% said IT is the sector likeliest to perform best in the next six months; 31% pointed to energy and 29% to health care. Another 29% pointed to consumer staples, and 27% liked the financials sector.

While health care still ranked third, it fell sharply in favor in recent months: That 29% is down from 42% of advisers who liked health care in January.

Taxing steps

When asked whether they were making moves to offset possible tax hikes coming in 2011, 52% of advisers said they're realizing capital losses now to help offset an expected rise in capital-gains-tax rates, and 50% gave the same reason for selling investments that have appreciated in value.

Another 52% said they're helping clients convert from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA.

Forty-three percent said they're adding tax-free income sources to clients' portfolios, 34% said they're allocating investments to tax-deferred accounts, 29% said they are gifting assets to heirs, and 28% said they're using charitable donations to offset taxes.

Money managers are optimistic, but clients aren't

Monday, August 23, 2010

Wall St slips in light volume on economic woes

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks slipped in one of the lightest volume sessions of the year on Monday as investors took refuge in defensive shares after the latest corporate M&A failed to soothe concerns the recovery is stalling.

Technology shares weighed on the broad market and sent the Nasdaq composite lower as a possible bidding war over data storage company 3PAR (PAR.N) between Hewlett-Packard Co (HPQ.N) and Dell Inc (DELL.O) sent shares of HP 2 percent lower.

The bid comes on the heels of other deals last week, including acquisition offers from Intel Corp (INTC.O) and BHP Billiton (BHP.AX) and had pushed indexes higher at the session's open.

"Overriding the M&A buzz -- which didn't have a lot of longevity -- is the fact that economic data still remains very poor and there's concern that the much-discussed soft patch has the potential to become something greater," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

Analysts said the recent spate of M&A also points to companies continuing to make profits through cost cutting rather than through revenue growth and highlights the economy's weakness.

Mergers also typically lead to job cuts, casting another shadow over an already weak labor market.

"Companies can do well versus the overall economy for a certain length of time, but pretty soon they are going to have to see better top-line growth," said Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) slipped 39.21 points, or 0.38 percent, to 10,174.41. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) lost 4.33 points, or 0.40 percent, to 1,067.36. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) fell 20.13 points, or 0.92 percent, to 2,159.63.

Composite volume on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq was one of the lightest of the year at about 5.99 billion as investors stayed to the sidelines and others were away Payday advance.

Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at BTIG LLC in New York, wrote that weekly equity volumes the past couple weeks have been 24 percent below the weekly averages for all of 2010.

The S&P 500 also broke through a support level of 1,170 after holding up earlier in the day. The level had formed a floor for the index of late and represents the 50 percent retracement of the most recent rally from July 1 to August 9.

Gains by utilities, healthcare and other defensive sectors stemmed declines. The S&P 500 utilities sector (.GSPU) gained 0.6 percent, while the healthcare group (.GSPA) added 0.3 percent.

Cyclical sectors led the way down, including industrial shares, which are more economically sensitive. Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) gave up 2.9 percent at $66.84.

The Nasdaq fared worse than the other two indexes, extending losses late in the day as technology shares slipped. Lingering concerns about the stalling economic recovery weighed on tech.

The Dow and S&P 500 have notched two straight weeks of losses on gloominess over softer-than-expected data in recent days. Investors will get more data this week, with July existing-home sales due on Tuesday and the government's revised reading for gross domestic product due on Friday.

HP, the computer maker, bid $24 a share in cash for 3PAR, topping an earlier bid from Dell. Shares of 3PAR surged 44.6 percent to $26.09, while HP dropped 2 percent to $39.04. Dell shares fell 1.1 percent to $11.94.

3M Co's (MMM.N) Chief Executive George Buckley said the Dow component may spend about $2 billion on acquisitions in 2010, twice its previous estimate. 3M shares added 0.5 percent to $81.08.

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

Wall St slips in light volume on economic woes

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Britain’s Economy Shows Growth as Deficit Shrinks

LONDON — The British economy showed signs of strengthening Thursday after reports that the country’s budget deficit shrank at a faster pace than expected in July and retail sales posted the biggest gain in five months.

The government’s net borrowing declined to £3.17 billion ($5 billion) in July from £5.52 billion a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics. The deficit was smaller than some economists had expected.

Retail sales, meanwhile, rose 1.1 percent in July from a month earlier, helped by sales of sporting equipment, toys and jewelry. The pound gained against the dollar and the euro.

There was also positive news Thursday from Germany, where the central bank raised its growth forecast for the year to about 3 percent from 1.9 percent.

Germany’s gross domestic product rose at the fastest pace since 1991 in the second quarter because of growing demand for its goods around the world.

The positive figures in Britain came just a week after the Bank of England cut its growth outlook and said it would consider more emergency stimulus if needed.

The central bank said the economic recovery would be “choppy” as banks had been slow to increase lending and the pace of a recovery in the United States and Europe remained uncertain.

Britain’s economic data continued to be mixed. Consumer confidence, for example, fell to a 15-month low in July, and recent housing data indicated that prices were starting to decline.

“We’ve been pushed around by the data slightly,” said Michael Taylor, a senior economist at Lombard Street Research in London. “But looking through all the noise,” he added, “the data is still consistent with below-trend growth. The deficit might come in slightly lower this year, but it’s still large and headwinds for consumers remain.”

Among those headwinds is a plan by the chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, to reduce the government’s deficit from 11 percent of gross domestic product to 2 paydayloans.1 percent over the next five years.

The plan, which is to be presented in more detail in October, would also include large job cuts in the public sector.

Economists disagreed about whether the budget cuts would stifle Britain’s fragile economic recovery and push the country back into recession. An increase in the sales tax next year is expected to stoke inflation, which is already above the government’s target of 2 percent and higher than in euro zone countries.

Higher inflation has made it more difficult for the Bank of England to decide whether to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, and has prompted an intense debate among policy makers.

The Bank of England governor, Mervyn A. King, has said that the central bank has been “surprised” by the large increases in consumer prices.

Mr. King said he continued to believe that the price increases were temporary, and caused mainly by weakness in the pound that has increased the price of imports and oil.

Some economists, including the departing chief of the Office for Budget Responsibility, who is in charge of economic forecasts for the Treasury, have said that a threat of a double-dip recession remained in Britain.

Others contend the economy has enough momentum to avoid a new downturn.

David Kern, economist for the British Chambers of Commerce, said the July figures on the budget deficit and retail sales were encouraging, but they did not alter the view that the British economy faced a difficult road ahead.

“While these figures show an improvement compared to a year ago, they also highlight the U.K.’s massive deficit and the major challenge in restoring stability to the public finances,” Mr. Kern said, adding that there was “no room for complacency.”

Britain’s Economy Shows Growth as Deficit Shrinks

Hot News: Bond Report: Treasurys rally this week on flight to safety

Target 2Q profit rises 14.3 percent on cost cuts

NEW YORK – Target Corp.'s second-quarter net income rose 14.3 percent, helped by cost-cutting that offset weaker-than-expected revenue.

The discounter, based in Minneapolis, said Wednesday its net income was $679 million, or 92 cents per share, in the period ended July 31. That compares with $594 million, or 79 cents per share, in the same period last year.

Revenue reached $15.53 billion, up 3.1 percent. Revenue at stores open at least a year rose 1.7 percent.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected 92 cents per share on revenue of $15.62 billion.

"Our retail segment generated strong profitability, overcoming softer-than-expected sales," Gregg Steinhafel, Target's chairman, president and CEO, said in a statement. He added that its credit card segment enjoyed "very strong results" amid a sharp reduction in bad-debt expense compared with last year.

He added, "Regardless of the pace of recovery, we are well-positioned to continue to gain profitable market share."

Like most retailers, Target has seen sales gains taper off since April as the economic recovery stalled.

Target plans to drive business into it stores this fall with a 5 percent discount for customers who pay with Target credit cards. It also hopes to draw customers in by emphasizing food at its general merchandise stores, a strategy that appears to be working so far.

Higher food sales and increased customer traffic helped its July revenue in stores open at least a year rise 2 percent, Target said earlier this month. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 2.3 percent increase. The strong sales were tempered by weak sales of electronics, video games, music and movies.

The company said Wednesday that for the full quarter, the average Target customer's total purchase shrank 0 paperless payday loans.8 percent, but more customers came into stores, fueling a 2.4 percent increase in transactions. Selling price per item sold was down 2.7 percent.

Target took a hit when the economy soured because only about 40 percent of its sales came from essentials like groceries and health and beauty items. At its top competitor, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., about 60 percent did.

But Target's renewed emphasis on low prices and its shift toward food have helped it weather the uncertain economy and outperform Wal-Mart, which on Tuesday reported its fifth straight quarterly decline in revenue at stores open at least a year.

In the early days of the Great Recession, Wal-Mart benefited from a steady flow of new customers trading down from upscale stores, but it's losing some of them as they trade back up. Many analysts believe Target is taking some of them away.

With revenue of about $65 billion in its latest fiscal year, Target is less than one-quarter of the size of Wal-Mart, which generated more than $400 billion.

What's also helped Target is that its customers typically have higher household income than Wal-Mart's shoppers. In May, Target executives had said that while many of its customers still felt the direct impact of job loss or other financial stress, a much larger portion weren't especially hurt by the recession.

That larger group had become cautious about spending out of wariness rather than necessity, but earlier in the year, they became more confident and started to indulge themselves in small ways.

Target 2Q profit rises 14.3 percent on cost cuts

Monday, August 16, 2010

Irish default insurance costs see pre-auction rise

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The cost of insuring Irish government debt against default continued to rise Monday, reflecting ongoing worries about the nation's banking sector and jitters a day ahead of an upcoming auction of up to 1.5 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in government bonds.

The spread on five-year credit default swaps widened to 300 basis points Monday from 280 late Friday, its highest level since March 2009, according to data provider Markit. That means it would cost $300,000 a year to insure $10 million of Irish debt against default for five years, up from $280,000 at the end of last week.

The euro , however, held a gain versus the U.S. dollar to change hands at $1.2822, up 0.5% on the day. Renewed sovereign-debt worries last week helped pressure the euro as it fell sharply versus the dollar from above $1.32.

Dollar should become even more attractive

The U.S. recovery may be fragile but more QE is unlikely. By contrast, Japanese growth is disappointing and more policy easing is needed. In the euro zone, the 'peripherals' are still under pressure despite strong German growth, making ECB policy setting even more difficult.

Irish CDS spreads have widened sharply since last week as concerns mounted over the health of the nation's banking sector. CDS spreads for other peripheral euro-zone countries have also moved higher, along with the yield premium demanded by investors to hold peripheral sovereign debt over German government bonds.

"We are wary of light trading volumes this time of year but cannot overlook the [recent] widening in EU peripheral spreads as a gauge that sentiment has again clouded over," said Kenneth Broux, senior market economist at Lloyds TSB, in a note to clients no fax pay day loan.

Patrick Honohan, the head of Ireland's central bank, said Monday that the cost of bailing out Ireland's financial sector would equal around 20% of gross domestic product, Reuters reported.

"It's a terrible shock to the system. It's costly but it's manageable," Honohan said, in a speech delivered in Hong Kong.

The European Union last week approved a plan by Ireland to boost state aid for Anglo Irish Bank, which contributed to renewed worries about the impact of the financial sector on Ireland's public finances.

Safe-haven flows have sent German bond yields lower, while German bund hit a new all-time high Monday at 132.04 and traded in recent action at 132.01, up 53 basis points. The nearby September contract took out the previous all-time high at 131.54 set on Friday.

The ECB was seen last week buying short-dated Irish government bonds in an effort to calm market volatility, news reports said. The purchases took place under the bond-buying plan put in place in May. The ECB on Monday said it purchased €10 million euros worth of euro-zone government bonds on the secondary market, up from around €8 million the previous week.

The ECB doesn't provide any details of its bond purchases.

Irish default insurance costs see pre-auction rise

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Retail sales tepid but sentiment finds a footing

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Retail sales rebounded in July but showed hints of lingering economic softness, as did inflation data showing underlying price pressures stuck at their lowest level since the 1960s.

The reports on Friday offer the latest evidence that the economy has slowed considerably in recent months, but were sufficiently firm to dispel, for now, fears of a renewed downturn.

Consumer sentiment appeared to have stabilized in August following a sharp drop in July, while business inventories rose more than analysts had been expecting.

"Consumers are still cautious, but it is not double-dip material," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Retail sales climbed 0.4 percent last month, following a revised 0.3 percent drop in June and below forecasts for a 0.5 percent gain.

Higher energy costs did boost U.S. consumer prices by 0.3 percent, the first rise in four months. But prices outside food and energy climbed just 0.1 percent, leaving the year-on-year gain, a measure favored by policymakers at the Federal Reserve, at just 0.9 percent for a fourth consecutive month.

Earlier this week, Fed officials expressed some concern about deflation as they decided to offer further stimulus to the economy by using the proceeds from maturing mortgage bonds in the central bank's portfolio to buy more Treasury bonds.

Some analysts were relieved that the inflation numbers did not soften further.

"There's been a lot of talk about deflation but no sign of that is emerging in the data yet," said Zach Pandl, economist at Nomura Securities in New York same day payday loans.

Still, there was plenty of pessimism among economists. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey of 36 professional forecasters sees the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the third quarter, down from the previous estimate of 3.3 percent that was issued in May.

Market reaction to the figures was muted, with stocks treading water and bond prices climbing modestly.

The retail data revealed some potentially troubling signs. Excluding autos, sales advanced just 0.2 percent compared with a median forecast of 0.3 percent. Gasoline station receipts, which sometimes reflect price rises rather than increased demand, jumped 2.3 percent. When autos and gasoline were stripped out, sales actually fell 0.1 percent.

Retail sales are a key component of growth for a country where consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of total economic activity.

In Europe, which until recently was mired in a seemingly intractable debt crisis, things were looking a bit better.

Germany's economy grew at the fastest rate since reunification in the second quarter as companies stepped up investment and exports surged, providing fresh evidence that the recovery has shifted up a gear. Still, Greece, Ireland and Spain continued to suffer.

(Additional reporting by Doug Palmer in Washington and Chris Reese and Rodrigo Campos in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Retail sales tepid but sentiment finds a footing

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Europe Markets: European shares edge higher in choppy session

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European shares ended with small gains Thursday, consolidating after steep declines in the previous session triggered by concerns over economic growth.

"Economic indicators are sending conflicting messages at the moment, suggesting uncertain times ahead," said asset managers at Gartmore

The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended with a gain of 0.1%, or 0.26 point, at 254.94 after fluctuating between small gains and losses over the course of the day.

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Stocks tumbled 2% in Europe Wednesday following downbeat comments from central bankers and data from Asia.

Thursday gave investors more reasons to be wary about the economic backdrop, as data showed that euro-zone industrial production dropped 0.1% in June and Greece's economy contracted 1.5% in second quarter. Read more on European data. Read more on U.S. data.

Banks were broadly lower, with Bank of Ireland shares falling 1.8% and Allied Irish Banks down 1.3% after a media report that the European Central Bank stepped in and purchased short-dated Irish government bonds. Read story about Ireland and renewed sovereign-debt worries.

The Irish Iseq 20 index lost 0.3% to 466.74.

Of the major regional benchmarks, the German DAX index declined 0.3% to close at 6,135.17, the French CAC-40 index lost 0.2% to end at 3,621.07 and the U.K. FTSE 100 index settled 0.4% higher at 5,266.06.

Asian shares ended lower and U.S. stocks were lower after U.S. first-time weekly jobless claims ticked up and Cisco Systems Inc. reported sales that disappointed investors and took a cautious stance on the future.

In the European technology sector, Franco-American telecom equipment firm Alcatel-Lucent lost 0.7% and microchip-maker Infineon Technologies fell 1.1%.

Other stocks tied to economic growth also declined, with automaker Daimler down 2.8%.

Vedanta Resources shares fell 7.5% in the mining sector after oil exploration company Cairn Energy , which rose 1.8%, said that the two firms are in talks over its Cairn India unit.

Earnings received a mixed reaction, with RWE AG , falling 1% after the German utility reported an 8% drop in first-half profit to 2 fast cash advance loan.04 billion euros ($2.63 billion) and announced it will reassess its medium-term goals following government plans to introduce a nuclear fuel tax. Read more on RWE.

Aker Solutions shares fell 9.6% after the engineering firm reported its second-quarter profit dropped to 445 million Norwegian kroner ($72.1 million), a larger-than-expected decline.

Aegon shares lost 3.5%. The Dutch insurance firm swung to a second-quarter profit of €413 million, but said it's cautious on the outlook. Read more on Aegon earnings.

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Still, German solar firm Q-Cells rose 10.7% after it swung to a quarterly net profit of €35.2 million. It also lifted its fiscal-year sales guidance.

Shares of world's largest brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev jumped 5.4% after it posted a 7.3% rise in second-quarter net profit to $1.15 billion.

The firm said good weather and the World Cup helped drive a stronger-than-expected 2.1% increase in volumes during the quarter. Read more on AB InBev earnings.

Also in the food sector, Danone shares gained 1.5%. Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods said it has reached an agreement to repurchase Danone's stake in the firm for $470 million.

Defensive telecoms were also firm, with Deutsche Telekom shares gaining 2.6% and Portugal Telecom rising 2.8%.

Strategists at Barclays Capital said they are still positive on European equities, which they believe are severely undervalued.

"European equities trade at multi-decade valuation lows relative to cash, government bonds, investment grade and high-yield credit and U.S. equities," they noted.

Europe Markets: European shares edge higher in choppy session

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Wall Street dragged down by commodities

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks dropped sharply on Tuesday as commodity shares were hit by indications China's economic growth may be slowing and by mounting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's assessment of the U.S. economy, due later in the session.

The S&P 500 (.SPX) dipped below its 200-day moving average, with commodity and energy stocks as the biggest decliners on the index. China's July imports data showed a slower-than-expected growth, signaling the world's third-largest economy may be losing its steam.

"China is certainly the global growth engine for almost all parts of the world, especially to the United States. Their macro data is influencing the psychology of investors of all assets here," said Craig Peckham, equity trading strategist at Jefferies & Co in New York.

Other data showed U.S. non-farm productivity unexpectedly dropped in the second quarter, the first decline since late 2008, adding selling pressure on equities.

The S&P 500 Index's 200-day moving average, now at 1,115.50, is a widely followed technical signal, and a close below it could indicate a turnaround in market momentum.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) was down 104.64 points, or 0.98 percent, at 10,594.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) was down 11.91 points, or 1.06 percent, at 1,115.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) was down 32.07 points, or 1.39 percent, at 2,273.62.

Speculation has been growing about whether the Fed will send a clear signal it is prepared to print more money to support a faltering U.S. economic recovery, if necessary paydayloans. The Fed will release a statement from the meeting at around 2:15 p.m. EDT.

Investors are bracing for a number of scenarios: While more easy money from the Fed could encourage investors to buy stocks, a more cautious forecast from the central bank, whose outlook has still been for a moderate recovery, may heighten concerns that the economic growth may be losing its steam.

A mere acknowledgment of a blip might also disappoint investors who have been betting the Fed would make a more concrete move, such as buying bonds to pull down market rates.

Steve Goldman, market strategist at Weeden & Co, said the Fed will not make significant changes on its policy, but it might "build a foundation for a possible stimulus in a few months if the economy continues to show signs of slowing growth, in which case the market would see a sign of relief."

In recent days, the market has reacted to the possibility of additional action from the Fed to revive the economy, especially after Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report for July.

The S&P materials index (.GSPM) was down 1.7 percent and the energy index (.GSPE) was off 1.3 percent.

On the blue-chip index, Alcoa Inc (AA.N) fell 2.7 percent to $11.34 and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) dropped 1.2 percent to $61.70.

The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), Wall Street's yardstick of investor anxiety, rose 7.5 percent to 23.81.

(Editing by Padraic Cassidy)

Wall Street dragged down by commodities

Friday, August 6, 2010

German industrial production slips in June

BERLIN – Industrial production in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, slipped slightly in June after posting healthy rises in the preceding months, government data showed Friday.

Production was down 0.6 percent on the month, the Economy Ministry said. In May, production increased by 2.9 percent — revised upward from a preliminary estimate of 2.6 percent.

The data showed slight declines across the board except in production of consumer goods, which was up 0.2 percent on the month.

The weaker showing "should not be interpreted as the end of the industrial rebound," said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit in Munich. "It was rather a breather after the impressive growth rates in the previous months."

The figures came a day after a separate report showed that German industrial orders returned to healthy growth in June after a slight decline the previous month.

Industrial production in May and June was up 3.3 percent over the previous two-month period, a less volatile measurement, the Economy Ministry said online payday advance.

Second-quarter gross domestic product figures are due next Friday, with Germany expected to lead a good eurozone performance. Koch estimated German quarter-on-quarter growth at 1.2 percent.

A poll for ARD television found that 50 percent of Germans expect the country's economic situation to be better in future, a six-point increase compared with last November, while only 18 percent expect it to worsen — a 12-point fall.

The poll of 1,000 people, conducted on Aug. 2 and 3 by the Infratest dimap group, gave a margin of error of plus or minus up to 3.1 points.

While the mood now is one of optimism, economists expect slower growth in the year's second half.

"Toward the end of the year, we will have to live with substantially lower growth dynamic again" in industry, Koch said.

German industrial production slips in June

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Work remains even with BP leak plugged, oil fading

NEW ORLEANS – Crews made key progress in plugging BP's blown-out Gulf oil well Wednesday as a report said much of the spilled crude is gone, twin victories that heartened leaders who have taken political heat but left some experts and Gulf Coast residents skeptical.

BP PLC reported that mud forced down the well overnight was pushing the crude back down to its source for the first time since the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded off Louisiana on April 20, killing 11 workers.

The effort is progressing, giving officials high confidence that no more oil will leak into the Gulf, retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the government's point man on the spill response, said at a news briefing in Washington. But he stressed the containment effort isn't over.

Crews that performed the so-called "static kill" overnight now must decide whether they should follow up by pumping cement down the broken wellhead. Officials won't declare complete victory until they get into the well from the other end, and that won't happen until later this month.

"This job will not be complete until we finish the relief well and pump mud and cement in through the bottom," Allen said.

The upbeat news coincided with the release of a federal report Wednesday indicating that only about a quarter of the spilled oil remains in the Gulf and is degrading quickly, with the rest contained, cleaned up or otherwise gone.

The remaining oil, much of it below the surface, remains a threat to sea life and Gulf Coast marshes, said Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But the spill no longer poses a threat to the Florida Keys or the East Coast, according to the report by NOAA and the Interior Department.

President Barack Obama, while noting that people's lives "have been turned upside down," declared that the operation was "finally close to coming to an end."

A Florida State University oceanographer who has long been tracking the spill, and who early on challenged the government's low estimates of its size, called the report "spin."

"There's some science here, but mostly it's spin, and it breaks my heart to see them do it," said the oceanographer, Ian MacDonald. "This is an unfortunate report. I'm afraid this continues a track record of doubtful information distributed through NOAA."

The calculations were based on daily operational reports, estimates by scientists and analyses by experts. The government acknowledged it made certain assumptions about how oil dissolves in water naturally over time.

Lubchenco defended the report, saying authors used direct measurements and the best estimates available and have a high degree of confidence in them. The numbers can be updated as new information comes in, she noted.

Nearly three-quarters of the oil — more than 152 million gallons — has been collected at the well by a temporary containment cap, been cleaned up or chemically dispersed, or naturally deteriorated, evaporated or dissolved, the report said.

That leaves nearly 53 million gallons in the Gulf. The amount remaining — or washed up on the shore — is still nearly five times the size of the 11 million-gallon Exxon Valdez spill, which wreaked environmental havoc in Alaska in 1989 cheap payday advance.

About a quarter of the oil evaporated or dissolved in the warm Gulf waters, the same way sugar dissolves in water, federal officials said. Another one-sixth naturally dispersed because of the way it leaked from the well. Another one-sixth was burned, skimmed or dispersed using controversial chemicals.

Nearly 207 million gallons leaked from the well in total, according to government estimates. The cap held back nearly 35 million gallons.

Charter boat captain Randy Boggs, of Orange Beach, Ala., said Wednesday he has a hard time believing BP's claims of success with the static kill and similarly dismissed the idea that only a quarter of the oil remains in the Gulf.

"There are still boats out there every day working, finding turtles with oil on them and seeing grass lines with oil in it," said Boggs, 45. "Certainly all the oil isn't accounted for. There are millions of pounds of tar balls and oil on the bottom."

At the entrance to Gulf Islands National Seashore at Pensacola Beach, Fla., Don Allen still wasn't expecting to sell many snow cones or Italian sausages from his food truck.

"I don't know where it went if it's not out there," said Allen, who had to lay off his son because business has been so slow as tourists abandoned beaches over the summer. "It's all just numbers, and it has changed so often."

BP applied nearly 2 million gallons of a chemical dispersant to the oil as it spewed from the well, an attempt to break it into droplets so huge slicks wouldn't tarnish shorelines and coat marine animals, and to encourage it to degrade more quickly.

Lawmakers in Washington pressed scientists Wednesday to explain what effects the chemical will have on the Gulf's ecosystem.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., called use of the chemicals a "grand experiment" that didn't guarantee limited damage from the spill or make clear whether greater harm was possible.

The 75-ton cap placed on the well in July had been keeping the oil bottled up inside over the past three weeks but was considered only a temporary measure. BP and the Coast Guard wanted to plug up the hole with a column of heavy drilling mud and cement to seal it off more securely.

BP chief executive Tony Hayward is stepping down in October amid criticism of his handling of the spill and cleanup efforts. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Wednesday that no one owes him an apology despite the new confidence that cleanup efforts are working.

He said results would have been different if federal officials had not pushed BP "at every step of the way" for a quicker, more thorough response.

___

Contributing to this report were Associated Press writers Dina Cappiello and Seth Borenstein in Washington, Jay Reeves in Birmingham, Ala., and Jennifer Kay in Pensacola Beach, Fla.

(This version CORRECTS the spelling of the skeptical oceanographer's last name to MacDonald, instead of McDonald.)

Work remains even with BP leak plugged, oil fading

Hot News: Congress frees cleanup money for Gulf oil spill

Monday, August 2, 2010

Global IPO proceeds hit pre 2008 crisis levels

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Proceeds from initial public offerings in July soared on a global basis, hitting their highest level since before the 2008 financial meltdown, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The $30.5 billion that new issues raised globally in July was the most since November 2007 and exceeded the amount raised by follow-on issues for the month. Follow-ons, which were led by Mizuho Financial Group Inc (8411.T) and INPEX Corp (1605.T) in Japan, raised a total of $30.4 billion in July.

That was a turnaround from 2009, when IPOs for the most part were dwarfed by secondary offerings, many of them by banks under pressure from regulators to raise capital.

Year-to-date fees from the new issues, buoyed by Agricultural Bank of China's (1288.HK) $20.8 billion IPO and the UK's $1 no fax payday advances.04 billion Vallar Plc (VAAR.L) IPO, reached $3.7 billion. That is more than five times the $706 million of fees banks reaped in the first seven months of 2009.

Including IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles, the No. 1 ranked underwriting bank, year to date on a global basis, is JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N). JPMorgan has underwritten 185 deals worth $35.32 billion. Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) is in the No. 2 position with 128 deals worth $31.03 billion, and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) is No. 3, with 143 deals worth $25.49 billion.

(Reporting by Clare Baldwin; Editing by Gunna Dickson and Steve Orlofsky)

Global IPO proceeds hit pre 2008 crisis levels