Saturday, February 27, 2010

Currencies: Dollar heads down after home sales, confidence

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar remained lower versus most major rivals Friday, after a pair of reports showed consumer sentiment dipped this month and existing home sales fell 7.2% in January.

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit against a trade-weighted basket of rivals, traded at 80.346, down from 80.744 in North American trade late Thursday.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 73.6 from 74.4 in January, according to media reports. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for the headline number to taper off to 73.7 points.

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"There is a lack of impetus to take further bets in favor of the dollar especially in light of some tepid economic data of late, which in a sense provides a reprieve for the euro," said analysts at Interactive Brokers.

Earlier, the greenback trimmed losses after upwardly revised fourth-quarter gross domestic product data showed final sales were weaker than previously thought.

The U.S. Commerce Department said real gross domestic product increased at a 5.9% seasonally-adjusted annualized pace in the fourth quarter, of 2009, up from a previous estimate of 5.7% and in line with economists' expectations. Read about the GDP revision.

U.S. stocks, oil and gold all headed higher after the data, indicating more comfort among investors to buy so-called riskier assets and less need for the relative safe haven traditionally considered to be provided by the U.S. dollar.

The dollar lost ground versus the Japanese currency to buy 88.88 yen, compared to around 89.19 yen on Thursday.

Markets also continued to adjust positions to account for changing expectations of Greece's ability to refinance its debt and resolve its fiscal deficits, which has pushed the euro down 0.6% versus the dollar this week. That may be enough to prompt some traders to unwind bets that the euro would fall.

"Although the Greek sovereign fears remain close to hand, the foreign-exchange market is a little calmer to end the week as dealers move to lighten the load a little wrapping up profitable short positions against the euro," Andrew Wilkinson at Interactive wrote in a note cash advance payday loan.

Also, stronger-than-expected Japanese January industrial production and retail trade figures appeared to trigger a modest pickup in risk appetite, undercutting the dollar and the Japanese yen, said Jane Foley, research director at Forex.com. Read about Japan's economic data.

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The euro traded at $1.3640 versus the dollar, up from $1.3554 on Thursday. The single currency held support above the nine-month low at $1.3440 in Thursday's session.

The euro "managed to skip a definitive crash below the year's low at $1.3440, but its near-term picture is still fragile and volatile," wrote strategists at UniCredit Bank in Milan.

A rebound back above $1.3580 "may limit selling pressures, but given the overall gloomy picture, this may not be enough to avoid a test of $1.3375 in the end," they said.

British pound

Unconfirmed rumors Prime Minister Gordon Brown could move as early as this weekend to call an election also cast a cloud over the British pound, traders said. An election must take place no later than mid-June and most observers expect the poll to take place on May 6.

Under British law, an election would take place 17 working days after Queen Elizabeth, at the request of the prime minister, issues a proclamation dissolving parliament.

An upward revision in British fourth-quarter gross domestic product data offered no support for the pound, which sank about 0.5% before recovering a little to buy $1.5230, a loss of 0.2%. The euro gained almost 1% versus the pound. Read about the U.K. GDP revision.

Data indicating a lackluster start to 2010, hints that the Bank of England could eventually resume its money-printing, quantitative easing program, and a looming election are seen keeping pressure on the pound, which has broken through important chart levels versus major rivals.

A break below the $1.5180 to $1.5190 level versus the dollar would set the stage for a move toward support in the $1.4980 to $1.5020 area, and then $1.4850, said Michael Hewson, technical analyst at CMC Markets.

Currencies: Dollar heads down after home sales, confidence